'Significant' nor'easter on track to impact Long Island coast late Friday into Saturday, bringing high winds, prolonged rain, coastal flooding

A "significant" late-week nor’easter was on track to impact Long Island by Friday, likely bringing strong wind, prolonged rain, coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents, meteorologists said.

While its exact track is not yet certain, confidence "in a more impactful, westerly track closer to the coast" has increased, the weather service said Thursday evening. There is a "slight risk" across nearly all of the Island that an excessive rainfall will lead to "localized" flash flooding. The agency forecast a "prolonged period of rainfall" that will produce 3 to 5 inches Friday evening through Sunday.

Moving up from the Carolinas, the system was expected to intensify as it moves up to Long Island Friday and stays through early Sunday, impacting much of the Northeast's Atlantic Coast.

In an email, NewsdayTV meteorologist Geoff Bansen said the storm’s track would be determined partly by its interactions with "one of the strongest highs of the year over the Great Lakes." High-pressure systems can steer oncoming storms. They can also intensify them.

Rain is expected to start Friday and continue through Saturday, Bansen said.

The weather service's Thursday evening briefing included a coastal flood advisory for southern Nassau County and southwest Suffolk during high tides Friday through Saturday, with the greatest risk around 10 p.m. Friday and 10 a.m. Saturday.

Seas were projected to reach 9-13 feet, with gale conditions across inner ocean waters.

There is a wind advisory for Long Island from 2 p.m. Friday to 6 a.m. Sunday with sustained north winds of 20 mph to 25 mph and gusts of up to 55 mph. 

County executives for Suffolk and Nassau announced a joint emergency measures briefing Friday. On Thursday, the Island hunkered down.

PSEG Long Island, the electrical utility, said it was preparing for possible outages and Long Island Rail Road's president told Newsday had a quick response plan in place. 

In a news release, PSEG said in a news release it had performed "system and logistic checks" to ensure that customers who lose power would get it back as quickly as possible. The utility noted, though, that for safety reasons field crews do not make repairs during periods of high winds.

LIRR president Rob Free told Newsday the railroad would preposition crews, pumps and other equipment, as well as add to the personnel in its operations center. 

The poor weekend forecast was leading to officials cancelling events such as the debut Long Island Potato Festival, expected at Farmingdale State College Saturday and Sunday, has been postponed to Nov. 7-8.
The Cross Sound Ferry canceled its trips on the half hour between Orient and New London, Connecticut, due to "impending weather and sea conditions," the operator said on its website, though almost all trips on the hour remained on the schedule. 

The Bridgeport & Port Jefferson Ferry was operating on a normal schedule Thursday, according to the operator's website. Some Captree fishing boats, including the Laura Lee Fleet, had trips canceled through Thursday, according to its website. Customers should check with their individual boat company for the latest updates on fishing trips.

Beach front camping and outer beach driving in Suffolk County parks was suspended from Thursday through at least Sunday, County Executive Ed Romaine announced in a release. Hard-sided campers/RVs were still permitted on a site-by-site basis but campers were advised to plan for heavy rainfall and strong, sustained winds.

George Gorman, Long Island regional director for state parks, said Thursday that parks workers began preparing the beaches several days ago. One line of defense is a wall of sand at Jones Beach, intended to protect the Central Mall and park infrastructure. Stretching from the East Bathhouse to the West, more than a quarter mile long, it reached a height of six feet, built upon a three-foot barrier that went up after Labor Day. “We raised it higher as soon as we saw the forecast,” Gorman said.

Parks workers also put sandbags around buildings and closed access to the 4-wheel drive area at Robert Moses. “We don’t want anyone stranded out there,” Gorman said.

One area of concern is Hither Hills State Park in Montauk. The East End is supposed to take the brunt of the storm and parks staff are especially worried about beach erosion because the beach there did not build up as much this year as it typically does in the spring and summer. “We are monitoring and if we do get hit, we are going to analyze what the impact of erosion is” to determine possible fixes.

The storm is expected to hit Long Island at a time when many recreational boat owners still have their vessels in the water. At Leeward Cove Marina in Patchogue, store manager Roger Miskosky said he was advising owners about the basics: “tie their boats high on the poles” and move their boats “as far as you can from the dock.”

In a tidal surge, he said, “if you’re tied low on the pole, the rope will hold the boat down instead of going up and down, and there’s more chance of it swamping and sinking.”

He also advised owners to use crossed stern lines to keep their boats centered in their slips.

In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a news release that residents should "prepare for gusty winds, rain and coastal flooding this weekend...If you live near the coast, move your car to higher ground or away from streets that regularly flood, and secure anything outside that could be picked up by strong winds."

Newsday's Nicholas Grasso contributed to this story.